Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Saudi Electricity Company (5110.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$128.59 - $270.50$253.50
Multi-Stage$41.56 - $45.47$43.48
Blended Fair Value$148.49
Current Price$14.70
Upside910.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS31.71%18.60%0.700.690.700.700.170.180.130.130.130.13
YoY Growth--1.58%-0.92%-1.00%309.54%-2.87%36.67%0.10%0.48%0.84%0.25%
Dividend Yield--4.47%3.50%2.98%2.66%0.73%1.11%0.78%0.63%0.56%0.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,667.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,926.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,740.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,133.44708.40425.04
Cash Retained (M)2,740.402,740.402,740.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,133.44-708.40-425.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,606.962,032.002,315.36
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,166.564,166.564,166.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.390.490.56
LTM Dividend per Share0.700.700.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.390.490.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.091.191.26
WACC / Discount Rate6.39%6.39%6.39%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$128.59$253.50$270.50
Upside / Downside774.74%1,624.50%1,740.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,667.226,035.596,427.906,845.727,290.697,764.587,997.52
Payout Ratio51.64%59.32%66.99%74.66%82.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,926.823,580.054,305.845,110.866,002.346,988.127,397.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.39%6.39%6.39%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,333.343,364.943,396.54
Year 2 PV (M)3,732.843,803.943,875.71
Year 3 PV (M)4,125.404,243.834,364.50
Year 4 PV (M)4,511.114,684.604,863.04
Year 5 PV (M)4,890.065,126.255,371.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)152,579.49159,949.14167,600.84
Equity Value (M)173,172.26181,172.70189,472.11
Shares Outstanding (M)4,166.564,166.564,166.56
Fair Value$41.56$43.48$45.47
Upside / Downside182.74%195.80%209.35%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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