Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Arakawa Chemical Industries, Ltd. (4968.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,114.27 - $1,929.69$1,464.50
Multi-Stage$2,203.24 - $2,421.35$2,310.19
Blended Fair Value$1,887.35
Current Price$1,096.00
Upside72.20%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS1.11%6.13%47.9947.9947.9947.9943.9545.4240.5342.6432.0630.80
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%9.17%-3.22%12.06%-4.96%33.02%4.09%16.38%
Dividend Yield--4.68%3.97%4.81%4.84%3.69%3.67%2.76%2.40%1.67%3.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,734.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)971.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)763.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)346.80216.75130.05
Cash Retained (M)763.00763.00763.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-346.80-216.75-130.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)416.20546.25632.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)19.8419.8419.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share20.9827.5331.90
LTM Dividend per Share48.9448.9448.94
(+) Excess Retained per Share20.9827.5331.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend69.9276.4880.85
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate-0.08%0.92%1.92%
Fair Value$1,114.27$1,464.50$1,929.69
Upside / Downside1.67%33.62%76.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,734.001,749.911,765.961,782.171,798.521,815.021,869.47
Payout Ratio56.00%62.80%69.60%76.40%83.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)971.001,098.911,229.091,361.561,496.361,633.511,729.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate-0.08%0.92%1.92%
Year 1 PV (M)1,024.621,034.881,045.13
Year 2 PV (M)1,068.531,090.021,111.73
Year 3 PV (M)1,103.671,137.141,171.28
Year 4 PV (M)1,130.941,176.901,224.25
Year 5 PV (M)1,151.151,209.921,271.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)38,230.6340,182.4242,213.13
Equity Value (M)43,709.5545,831.2948,036.59
Shares Outstanding (M)19.8419.8419.84
Fair Value$2,203.24$2,310.19$2,421.35
Upside / Downside101.03%110.78%120.93%

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