Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Trend Micro Incorporated (4704.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - InfrastructureSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4,945.16 - $10,487.23$7,020.05
Multi-Stage$3,850.82 - $4,192.82$4,018.78
Blended Fair Value$5,519.42
Current Price$8,100.00
Upside-31.86%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS34.36%19.83%727.80153.12200.61156.97163.86166.23149.57141.20109.55112.16
YoY Growth--375.31%-23.67%27.80%-4.21%-1.42%11.14%5.93%28.89%-2.32%-5.90%
Dividend Yield--7.27%1.99%3.10%2.19%2.96%3.11%2.77%2.22%2.21%2.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)34,883.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23,490.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)11,393.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6,976.604,360.382,616.23
Cash Retained (M)11,393.0011,393.0011,393.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-6,976.60-4,360.38-2,616.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,416.407,032.638,776.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)132.30132.30132.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share33.3853.1666.34
LTM Dividend per Share177.55177.55177.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share33.3853.1666.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend210.93230.71243.89
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4,945.16$7,020.05$10,487.23
Upside / Downside-38.95%-13.33%29.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)34,883.0037,150.4039,565.1742,136.9144,875.8147,792.7349,226.52
Payout Ratio67.34%71.87%76.40%80.94%85.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23,490.0026,700.5530,229.2334,103.8238,354.4043,013.4645,534.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)24,045.3124,273.2324,501.15
Year 2 PV (M)24,515.8724,982.8325,454.20
Year 3 PV (M)24,907.7025,622.7126,351.27
Year 4 PV (M)25,226.4326,196.5727,194.42
Year 5 PV (M)25,477.4126,707.9727,985.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)385,295.22403,905.12423,227.27
Equity Value (M)509,467.94531,688.43554,713.95
Shares Outstanding (M)132.30132.30132.30
Fair Value$3,850.82$4,018.78$4,192.82
Upside / Downside-52.46%-50.39%-48.24%

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