Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shionogi & Co., Ltd. (4507.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,684.44 - $4,667.57$3,533.66
Multi-Stage$2,606.25 - $2,847.65$2,724.74
Blended Fair Value$3,129.20
Current Price$2,591.50
Upside20.75%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS9.37%11.73%57.2351.5642.4738.9538.2336.5732.4828.4825.9921.41
YoY Growth--10.99%21.40%9.04%1.90%4.52%12.60%14.05%9.60%21.39%13.42%
Dividend Yield--2.21%2.48%2.10%1.70%1.98%1.63%1.54%1.50%1.25%1.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)170,843.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)52,476.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)118,367.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34,168.6021,355.3812,813.23
Cash Retained (M)118,367.00118,367.00118,367.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-34,168.60-21,355.38-12,813.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)84,198.4097,011.63105,553.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)850.93850.93850.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share98.95114.01124.05
LTM Dividend per Share61.6761.6761.67
(+) Excess Retained per Share98.95114.01124.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend160.62175.68185.71
WACC / Discount Rate9.95%9.95%9.95%
Growth Rate3.75%4.75%5.75%
Fair Value$2,684.44$3,533.66$4,667.57
Upside / Downside3.59%36.36%80.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)170,843.00178,952.64187,447.24196,345.06205,665.24215,427.84221,890.67
Payout Ratio30.72%42.57%54.43%66.29%78.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)52,476.0076,185.04102,026.69130,150.01160,713.37193,885.05205,248.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.95%9.95%9.95%
Growth Rate3.75%4.75%5.75%
Year 1 PV (M)68,626.4169,287.8969,949.37
Year 2 PV (M)82,786.0284,389.6486,008.64
Year 3 PV (M)95,128.1497,905.52100,736.44
Year 4 PV (M)105,812.86109,951.88114,211.15
Year 5 PV (M)114,987.96120,637.59126,507.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,750,384.661,836,385.101,925,733.13
Equity Value (M)2,217,726.062,318,557.622,423,145.86
Shares Outstanding (M)850.93850.93850.93
Fair Value$2,606.25$2,724.74$2,847.65
Upside / Downside0.57%5.14%9.88%

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