Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Tosoh Corporation (4042.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,260.14 - $4,640.85$3,171.40
Multi-Stage$2,118.73 - $2,310.23$2,212.75
Blended Fair Value$2,692.07
Current Price$2,189.50
Upside22.95%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS10.71%20.22%95.0480.0189.9761.9856.5757.1561.2258.1229.5523.68
YoY Growth--18.79%-11.06%45.15%9.57%-1.02%-6.66%5.34%96.67%24.82%57.07%
Dividend Yield--4.50%3.81%5.30%3.68%2.95%3.89%3.94%3.38%1.28%2.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)40,439.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)31,911.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)8,528.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8,087.805,054.883,032.93
Cash Retained (M)8,528.008,528.008,528.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-8,087.80-5,054.88-3,032.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)440.203,473.135,495.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)317.85317.85317.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.3810.9317.29
LTM Dividend per Share100.40100.40100.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.3810.9317.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend101.78111.33117.69
WACC / Discount Rate8.92%8.92%8.92%
Growth Rate4.23%5.23%6.23%
Fair Value$2,260.14$3,171.40$4,640.85
Upside / Downside3.23%44.85%111.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)40,439.0042,553.6644,778.9147,120.5249,584.5752,177.4853,742.81
Payout Ratio78.91%81.13%83.35%85.56%87.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)31,911.0034,523.4337,321.8240,318.4743,526.4746,959.7349,712.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.92%8.92%8.92%
Growth Rate4.23%5.23%6.23%
Year 1 PV (M)31,394.0331,695.2331,996.43
Year 2 PV (M)30,862.3531,457.3932,058.11
Year 3 PV (M)30,318.1931,199.2332,097.18
Year 4 PV (M)29,763.6330,922.4132,114.70
Year 5 PV (M)29,200.5530,628.4832,111.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)521,888.29547,408.91573,918.29
Equity Value (M)673,427.04703,311.65734,296.43
Shares Outstanding (M)317.85317.85317.85
Fair Value$2,118.73$2,212.75$2,310.23
Upside / Downside-3.23%1.06%5.51%

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