Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Thob Al Aseel Company (4012.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.01 - $21.43$9.97
Multi-Stage$19.39 - $21.37$20.36
Blended Fair Value$15.16
Current Price$3.78
Upside301.18%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.84%-1.81%0.190.160.150.060.170.150.230.150.000.19
YoY Growth--16.92%8.33%166.67%-66.67%12.50%-33.33%50.00%0.00%-100.00%-16.53%
Dividend Yield--4.61%3.43%3.99%1.27%2.87%4.44%10.56%13.64%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)89.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)80.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)9.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.9711.236.74
Cash Retained (M)9.839.839.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.97-11.23-6.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)-8.13-1.393.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)400.00400.00400.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.200.21
WACC / Discount Rate2.85%2.85%2.85%
Growth Rate-0.14%0.86%1.86%
Fair Value$6.01$9.97$21.43
Upside / Downside58.87%163.80%466.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)89.8390.6191.3992.1792.9693.7696.57
Payout Ratio89.05%89.24%89.43%89.62%89.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)80.0080.8681.7382.6083.4984.3889.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.85%2.85%2.85%
Growth Rate-0.14%0.86%1.86%
Year 1 PV (M)77.8478.6279.40
Year 2 PV (M)75.7477.2778.80
Year 3 PV (M)73.7075.9378.21
Year 4 PV (M)71.7174.6277.63
Year 5 PV (M)69.7773.3377.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,385.987,763.288,155.84
Equity Value (M)7,754.738,143.058,546.93
Shares Outstanding (M)400.00400.00400.00
Fair Value$19.39$20.36$21.37
Upside / Downside412.88%438.56%465.27%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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