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Definitive Analysis

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Mitsubishi Estate Logistics REIT Investment Corporation (3481.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - IndustrialSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,494,604.72 - $2,262,832.70$2,120,605.63
Multi-Stage$381,527.59 - $417,263.78$399,068.52
Blended Fair Value$1,259,837.07
Current Price$122,500.00
Upside928.44%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202520242023202220212020201920182017
DPS24.92%0.00%6,385.095,313.805,094.213,615.112,745.902,099.281,645.261,577.3558.370.00
YoY Growth--20.16%4.31%40.91%31.65%30.80%27.60%4.31%2,602.27%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.21%4.26%3.92%2.29%1.60%1.47%1.53%1.86%0.06%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)17,153.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12,844.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,309.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,430.732,144.211,286.52
Cash Retained (M)4,309.304,309.304,309.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,430.73-2,144.21-1,286.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)878.572,165.093,022.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1.511.511.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share582.761,436.122,005.03
LTM Dividend per Share8,519.778,519.778,519.77
(+) Excess Retained per Share582.761,436.122,005.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend9,102.539,955.8910,524.80
WACC / Discount Rate6.14%6.14%6.14%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,494,604.72$2,120,605.63$2,262,832.70
Upside / Downside1,120.09%1,631.11%1,747.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)17,153.6618,268.6519,456.1120,720.7622,067.6123,502.0024,207.06
Payout Ratio74.88%77.90%80.93%83.95%86.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12,844.3614,231.7515,745.2417,395.3519,193.4421,151.8022,391.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.14%6.14%6.14%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)13,282.2613,408.1513,534.05
Year 2 PV (M)13,714.3813,975.6014,239.28
Year 3 PV (M)14,140.7814,546.7114,960.34
Year 4 PV (M)14,561.5215,121.5115,697.51
Year 5 PV (M)14,976.6515,700.0216,451.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)504,513.31528,881.50554,182.31
Equity Value (M)575,188.89601,633.50629,064.57
Shares Outstanding (M)1.511.511.51
Fair Value$381,527.59$399,068.52$417,263.78
Upside / Downside211.45%225.77%240.62%

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