Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Activia Properties Inc. (3279.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$233,135.15 - $376,878.45$297,817.07
Multi-Stage$500,731.96 - $549,756.06$524,770.71
Blended Fair Value$411,293.89
Current Price$115,100.00
Upside257.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.03%7.77%12,715.3613,008.0812,923.6112,247.1312,685.2212,079.2610,744.849,684.798,365.817,214.11
YoY Growth---2.25%0.65%5.52%-3.45%5.02%12.42%10.95%15.77%15.96%19.89%
Dividend Yield--11.88%9.60%9.08%8.50%9.76%6.41%6.76%6.24%4.99%4.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)25,990.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23,150.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,840.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,198.123,248.831,949.30
Cash Retained (M)2,840.222,840.222,840.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,198.12-3,248.83-1,949.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)-2,357.90-408.60890.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1.191.191.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share-1,975.28-342.30746.36
LTM Dividend per Share19,393.7619,393.7619,393.76
(+) Excess Retained per Share-1,975.28-342.30746.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend17,418.4819,051.4620,140.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate-0.97%0.03%1.03%
Fair Value$233,135.15$297,817.07$376,878.45
Upside / Downside102.55%158.75%227.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)25,990.6025,998.8426,007.0826,015.3226,023.5726,031.8126,812.77
Payout Ratio89.07%89.26%89.44%89.63%89.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23,150.3823,205.9623,261.5823,317.2323,372.9223,428.6324,801.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate-0.97%0.03%1.03%
Year 1 PV (M)21,585.8521,803.8122,021.78
Year 2 PV (M)20,126.9620,535.4920,948.12
Year 3 PV (M)18,766.5919,340.8519,926.71
Year 4 PV (M)17,498.0918,215.6418,955.03
Year 5 PV (M)16,315.2717,155.8118,030.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)503,432.37529,368.64556,363.04
Equity Value (M)597,725.12626,420.24656,245.32
Shares Outstanding (M)1.191.191.19
Fair Value$500,731.96$524,770.71$549,756.06
Upside / Downside335.04%355.93%377.63%

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