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Definitive Analysis

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Advance Residence Investment Corporation (3269.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - ResidentialSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$125,492.21 - $206,160.81$161,394.77
Multi-Stage$221,170.36 - $242,828.49$231,791.53
Blended Fair Value$196,593.15
Current Price$156,100.00
Upside25.94%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.18%2.97%5,933.585,675.425,664.915,500.355,458.745,327.705,163.084,942.064,529.004,167.90
YoY Growth--4.55%0.19%2.99%0.76%2.46%3.19%4.47%9.12%8.66%-5.83%
Dividend Yield--4.15%3.60%3.27%2.98%2.92%3.12%3.06%3.40%3.36%2.94%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)31,777.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16,554.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)15,223.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6,355.603,972.252,383.35
Cash Retained (M)15,223.0815,223.0815,223.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-6,355.60-3,972.25-2,383.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)8,867.4811,250.8312,839.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2.862.862.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share3,105.823,940.584,497.09
LTM Dividend per Share5,798.325,798.325,798.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share3,105.823,940.584,497.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend8,904.149,738.9010,295.41
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate-0.08%0.92%1.92%
Fair Value$125,492.21$161,394.77$206,160.81
Upside / Downside-19.61%3.39%32.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)31,777.9832,071.2732,367.2632,665.9832,967.4633,271.7234,269.87
Payout Ratio52.10%59.68%67.26%74.84%82.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16,554.9119,138.9821,769.3524,446.6327,171.4829,944.5531,699.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate-0.08%0.92%1.92%
Year 1 PV (M)17,707.5517,884.7618,061.97
Year 2 PV (M)18,634.7919,009.6419,388.22
Year 3 PV (M)19,361.4419,948.5720,547.45
Year 4 PV (M)19,910.0120,719.0721,552.54
Year 5 PV (M)20,300.9021,337.2722,415.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)535,553.45562,893.56591,339.01
Equity Value (M)631,468.14661,792.86693,304.72
Shares Outstanding (M)2.862.862.86
Fair Value$221,170.36$231,791.53$242,828.49
Upside / Downside41.69%48.49%55.56%

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