Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Argosy Research Inc. (3217.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Computer HardwareSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$222.60 - $473.75$316.40
Multi-Stage$170.22 - $185.49$177.72
Blended Fair Value$247.06
Current Price$159.50
Upside54.90%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS18.55%0.00%6.405.355.605.603.922.730.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--19.63%-4.46%0.00%42.92%43.33%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.25%2.95%5.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,065.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)576.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)488.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)213.04133.1579.89
Cash Retained (M)488.52488.52488.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-213.04-133.15-79.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)275.48355.37408.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)90.1490.1490.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.063.944.53
LTM Dividend per Share6.406.406.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.063.944.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.4510.3410.93
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$222.60$316.40$473.75
Upside / Downside39.56%98.37%197.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,065.191,134.431,208.161,286.691,370.331,459.401,503.18
Payout Ratio54.14%61.31%68.48%75.66%82.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)576.67695.52827.38973.451,135.011,313.461,390.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)626.46632.40638.34
Year 2 PV (M)671.25684.03696.94
Year 3 PV (M)711.34731.76752.57
Year 4 PV (M)747.05775.78805.33
Year 5 PV (M)778.68816.29855.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,809.2212,379.6112,971.83
Equity Value (M)15,344.0016,019.8716,720.34
Shares Outstanding (M)90.1490.1490.14
Fair Value$170.22$177.72$185.49
Upside / Downside6.72%11.42%16.29%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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