Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Industry

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Greentown Service Group Co. Ltd. (2869.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.14 - $22.94$14.72
Multi-Stage$7.24 - $7.91$7.57
Blended Fair Value$11.15
Current Price$4.00
Upside178.64%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.52%17.50%0.140.090.170.170.070.060.040.030.010.08
YoY Growth--52.03%-47.48%0.15%145.87%24.03%32.28%34.45%356.40%-91.75%207.25%
Dividend Yield--3.80%3.41%3.75%2.92%0.86%0.74%0.81%0.62%0.29%4.56%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,587.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)285.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,302.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)317.57198.48119.09
Cash Retained (M)1,302.741,302.741,302.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-317.57-198.48-119.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)985.171,104.261,183.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,166.483,166.483,166.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.350.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.350.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.400.440.46
WACC / Discount Rate9.67%9.67%9.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10.14$14.72$22.94
Upside / Downside153.50%268.09%473.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,587.851,691.061,800.981,918.052,042.722,175.492,240.76
Payout Ratio17.96%32.36%46.77%61.18%75.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)285.12547.31842.381,173.511,544.121,957.952,072.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.67%9.67%9.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)494.35499.03503.72
Year 2 PV (M)687.24700.33713.55
Year 3 PV (M)864.74889.56914.86
Year 4 PV (M)1,027.731,067.261,107.91
Year 5 PV (M)1,177.071,233.921,292.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,670.8719,572.6820,509.01
Equity Value (M)22,922.0023,962.7925,041.99
Shares Outstanding (M)3,166.483,166.483,166.48
Fair Value$7.24$7.57$7.91
Upside / Downside80.97%89.19%97.71%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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