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Definitive Analysis

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Elematec Corporation (2715.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Technology DistributorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,473.41 - $5,264.85$3,515.85
Multi-Stage$1,916.86 - $2,087.47$2,000.64
Blended Fair Value$2,758.24
Current Price$1,728.00
Upside59.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.54%12.28%88.9963.0139.9827.9934.9734.9717.5122.5242.4730.01
YoY Growth--41.24%57.61%42.84%-19.97%0.00%99.72%-22.23%-46.98%41.50%7.43%
Dividend Yield--4.37%3.46%3.18%2.14%3.99%3.28%1.33%2.46%4.14%2.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,375.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,480.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,895.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,075.00671.88403.13
Cash Retained (M)1,895.001,895.001,895.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,075.00-671.88-403.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)820.001,223.131,491.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)40.9540.9540.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share20.0329.8736.43
LTM Dividend per Share84.9984.9984.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share20.0329.8736.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend105.02114.86121.42
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2,473.41$3,515.85$5,264.85
Upside / Downside43.14%103.46%204.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,375.005,724.386,096.466,492.736,914.767,364.227,585.14
Payout Ratio64.74%69.80%74.85%79.90%84.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,480.003,995.354,562.995,187.545,874.016,627.797,016.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,598.713,632.823,666.93
Year 2 PV (M)3,701.973,772.483,843.66
Year 3 PV (M)3,790.863,899.684,010.56
Year 4 PV (M)3,866.364,015.054,167.98
Year 5 PV (M)3,929.424,119.214,316.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)59,601.0162,479.7665,468.69
Equity Value (M)78,488.3381,919.0085,474.10
Shares Outstanding (M)40.9540.9540.95
Fair Value$1,916.86$2,000.64$2,087.47
Upside / Downside10.93%15.78%20.80%

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