Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited (2319.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$36.43 - $196.07$71.59
Multi-Stage$31.39 - $34.34$32.84
Blended Fair Value$52.21
Current Price$14.69
Upside255.43%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.10%17.27%0.490.400.380.270.180.180.120.090.140.15
YoY Growth--21.18%5.40%40.68%51.56%-0.33%46.84%40.02%-37.61%-5.54%49.62%
Dividend Yield--2.97%2.24%1.22%0.76%0.46%0.64%0.57%0.45%1.05%1.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,938.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,915.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)23.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)787.75492.34295.41
Cash Retained (M)23.1723.1723.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-787.75-492.34-295.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)-764.59-469.18-272.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,935.183,935.183,935.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.19-0.12-0.07
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.19-0.12-0.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.800.880.93
WACC / Discount Rate6.17%6.17%6.17%
Growth Rate3.89%4.89%5.89%
Fair Value$36.43$71.59$196.07
Upside / Downside148.02%387.32%1,234.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,938.754,131.224,333.084,544.824,766.904,999.835,149.82
Payout Ratio99.41%97.53%95.65%93.76%91.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,915.594,029.154,144.474,261.444,379.944,499.844,763.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.17%6.17%6.17%
Growth Rate3.89%4.89%5.89%
Year 1 PV (M)3,758.833,795.023,831.20
Year 2 PV (M)3,607.013,676.793,747.23
Year 3 PV (M)3,459.983,560.873,663.69
Year 4 PV (M)3,317.613,447.213,580.56
Year 5 PV (M)3,179.763,335.773,497.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)106,200.73111,411.48116,824.77
Equity Value (M)123,523.94129,227.13135,145.31
Shares Outstanding (M)3,935.183,935.183,935.18
Fair Value$31.39$32.84$34.34
Upside / Downside113.68%123.55%133.78%

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