Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Lee & Man Paper Manufacturing Limited (2314.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.88 - $9.01$7.34
Multi-Stage$28.99 - $32.07$30.50
Blended Fair Value$18.92
Current Price$2.27
Upside733.39%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-15.49%-2.19%0.120.060.180.330.250.290.410.290.220.17
YoY Growth--111.36%-66.92%-47.33%32.00%-11.33%-31.00%40.44%35.38%26.40%12.06%
Dividend Yield--5.10%2.54%5.11%6.16%3.98%4.83%6.22%3.14%3.61%3.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,866.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)829.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,037.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)573.39358.37215.02
Cash Retained (M)2,037.622,037.622,037.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-573.39-358.37-215.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,464.231,679.251,822.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,299.054,299.054,299.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.390.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.390.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.530.580.62
WACC / Discount Rate4.50%4.50%4.50%
Growth Rate-4.19%-3.19%-2.19%
Fair Value$5.88$7.34$9.01
Upside / Downside158.84%223.21%296.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,866.942,775.362,686.702,600.882,517.802,437.372,510.49
Payout Ratio28.93%41.14%53.36%65.57%77.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)829.321,141.831,433.521,705.421,958.482,193.632,322.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.50%4.50%4.50%
Growth Rate-4.19%-3.19%-2.19%
Year 1 PV (M)1,081.321,092.611,103.89
Year 2 PV (M)1,285.621,312.601,339.86
Year 3 PV (M)1,448.421,494.251,541.04
Year 4 PV (M)1,575.211,642.011,710.92
Year 5 PV (M)1,670.851,759.891,852.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)117,550.56123,814.82130,343.33
Equity Value (M)124,611.98131,116.17137,891.72
Shares Outstanding (M)4,299.054,299.054,299.05
Fair Value$28.99$30.50$32.07
Upside / Downside1,176.91%1,243.56%1,312.99%

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