Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Calbee, Inc. (2229.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,692.83 - $2,837.52$2,195.30
Multi-Stage$1,893.24 - $2,069.58$1,979.78
Blended Fair Value$2,087.54
Current Price$2,745.00
Upside-23.95%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS1.74%9.08%56.0752.0653.8153.5653.5751.4344.9944.9637.4329.92
YoY Growth--7.70%-3.26%0.46%-0.01%4.17%14.30%0.07%20.10%25.12%27.27%
Dividend Yield--2.04%1.68%1.97%1.96%2.09%1.72%1.53%1.08%0.85%0.70%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)17,347.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7,257.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)10,090.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,469.402,168.381,301.03
Cash Retained (M)10,090.0010,090.0010,090.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,469.40-2,168.38-1,301.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,620.607,921.638,788.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)124.94124.94124.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share52.9963.4070.35
LTM Dividend per Share58.0958.0958.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share52.9963.4070.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend111.08121.49128.43
WACC / Discount Rate9.45%9.45%9.45%
Growth Rate2.71%3.71%4.71%
Fair Value$1,692.83$2,195.30$2,837.52
Upside / Downside-38.33%-20.03%3.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)17,347.0017,990.5218,657.9219,350.0820,067.9120,812.3721,436.74
Payout Ratio41.83%51.47%61.10%70.73%80.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7,257.009,259.2711,400.1013,687.0316,127.9518,731.1319,828.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.45%9.45%9.45%
Growth Rate2.71%3.71%4.71%
Year 1 PV (M)8,378.318,459.888,541.46
Year 2 PV (M)9,334.019,516.659,701.06
Year 3 PV (M)10,140.2610,439.3310,744.23
Year 4 PV (M)10,811.8211,239.0711,678.86
Year 5 PV (M)11,362.2311,926.2312,512.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)186,509.66195,767.64205,389.67
Equity Value (M)236,536.29247,348.81258,567.69
Shares Outstanding (M)124.94124.94124.94
Fair Value$1,893.24$1,979.78$2,069.58
Upside / Downside-31.03%-27.88%-24.61%

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