Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

IVD Medical Holding Limited (1931.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DistributionSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.21 - $3.22$2.70
Multi-Stage$3.80 - $4.17$3.98
Blended Fair Value$3.34
Current Price$2.01
Upside66.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-9.28%0.00%0.100.050.040.030.060.160.000.010.020.00
YoY Growth--84.39%44.15%5.00%-41.00%-62.67%0.00%-100.00%-68.60%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.72%3.12%2.10%1.32%3.28%5.66%0.00%0.22%0.65%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)434.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)167.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)266.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)86.9454.3432.60
Cash Retained (M)266.71266.71266.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-86.94-54.34-32.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)179.77212.37234.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,456.031,456.031,456.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.150.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.150.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.260.28
WACC / Discount Rate8.58%8.58%8.58%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.21$2.70$3.22
Upside / Downside10.03%34.27%60.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)434.69430.35426.04421.78417.56413.39425.79
Payout Ratio38.64%48.92%59.19%69.46%79.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)167.99210.51252.16292.96332.92372.05393.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.58%8.58%8.58%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)191.91193.87195.83
Year 2 PV (M)209.57213.87218.22
Year 3 PV (M)221.97228.84235.84
Year 4 PV (M)229.96239.49249.32
Year 5 PV (M)234.29246.49259.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,442.474,673.804,914.67
Equity Value (M)5,530.185,796.366,073.06
Shares Outstanding (M)1,456.031,456.031,456.03
Fair Value$3.80$3.98$4.17
Upside / Downside88.96%98.06%107.51%

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