Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

China Kepei Education Group Limited (1890.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Education & Training ServicesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.58 - $7.64$5.92
Multi-Stage$15.80 - $17.44$16.61
Blended Fair Value$11.26
Current Price$1.25
Upside801.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.100.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%6.20%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)801.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)130.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)670.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)160.32100.2060.12
Cash Retained (M)670.97670.97670.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-160.32-100.20-60.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)510.65570.77610.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,012.032,012.032,012.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.280.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.280.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate4.83%4.83%4.83%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.58$5.92$7.64
Upside / Downside266.05%373.87%510.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)801.58793.57785.63777.78770.00762.30785.17
Payout Ratio16.29%31.04%45.78%60.52%75.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)130.62246.29359.64470.69579.49686.07726.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.83%4.83%4.83%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)232.58234.95237.33
Year 2 PV (M)320.71327.29333.93
Year 3 PV (M)396.37408.63421.14
Year 4 PV (M)460.82479.92499.60
Year 5 PV (M)515.19542.02569.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)29,863.4431,418.5033,037.67
Equity Value (M)31,789.1133,411.3035,099.62
Shares Outstanding (M)2,012.032,012.032,012.03
Fair Value$15.80$16.61$17.44
Upside / Downside1,163.96%1,228.46%1,295.59%

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