Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Dongguang Chemical Limited (1702.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$72.57 - $85.55$80.15
Multi-Stage$155.66 - $171.46$163.41
Blended Fair Value$121.78
Current Price$1.55
Upside7,756.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.48%0.00%0.070.070.080.040.050.030.020.000.000.28
YoY Growth--2.64%-14.46%99.14%-23.10%59.50%101.05%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.91%3.81%3.59%2.06%3.22%1.59%0.69%0.00%0.00%20.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)276.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)65.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)210.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)55.2534.5320.72
Cash Retained (M)210.48210.48210.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-55.25-34.53-20.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)155.24175.95189.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)620.94620.94620.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.280.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.280.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.360.390.41
WACC / Discount Rate-21.04%-21.04%-21.04%
Growth Rate1.95%2.95%3.95%
Fair Value$72.57$80.15$85.55
Upside / Downside4,581.69%5,070.83%5,419.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)276.23284.38292.78301.43310.33319.49329.08
Payout Ratio23.80%37.04%50.28%63.52%76.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)65.75105.34147.21191.47238.21287.54304.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-21.04%-21.04%-21.04%
Growth Rate1.95%2.95%3.95%
Year 1 PV (M)132.11133.41134.70
Year 2 PV (M)231.54236.11240.72
Year 3 PV (M)377.68388.90400.34
Year 4 PV (M)589.28612.74636.89
Year 5 PV (M)892.08936.70983.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)94,436.5199,159.64104,069.88
Equity Value (M)96,659.19101,467.48106,465.61
Shares Outstanding (M)620.94620.94620.94
Fair Value$155.66$163.41$171.46
Upside / Downside9,942.90%10,442.48%10,961.79%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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