Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Yihai International Holding Ltd. (1579.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$165.83 - $316.46$296.57
Multi-Stage$51.05 - $55.80$53.38
Blended Fair Value$174.97
Current Price$12.68
Upside1,279.92%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS46.20%39.94%1.020.180.230.250.210.150.050.040.000.05
YoY Growth--453.61%-20.15%-7.79%19.58%37.01%207.81%42.05%0.00%-100.00%36.58%
Dividend Yield--7.23%1.72%0.95%0.85%0.22%0.38%0.30%0.53%0.00%1.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,543.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,373.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)170.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)308.76192.97115.78
Cash Retained (M)170.31170.31170.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-308.76-192.97-115.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)-138.45-22.6754.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)970.17970.17970.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.14-0.020.06
LTM Dividend per Share1.421.421.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.14-0.020.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.271.391.47
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$165.83$296.57$316.46
Upside / Downside1,207.85%2,238.86%2,395.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,543.781,644.121,750.991,864.801,986.022,115.112,178.56
Payout Ratio88.97%89.17%89.38%89.59%89.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,373.471,466.141,565.051,670.631,783.321,903.602,015.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,366.171,379.121,392.07
Year 2 PV (M)1,358.901,384.781,410.91
Year 3 PV (M)1,351.661,390.461,430.00
Year 4 PV (M)1,344.451,396.161,449.34
Year 5 PV (M)1,337.281,401.871,468.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)42,771.1144,836.9746,981.89
Equity Value (M)49,529.5751,789.3554,133.14
Shares Outstanding (M)970.17970.17970.17
Fair Value$51.05$53.38$55.80
Upside / Downside302.62%320.99%340.04%

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