Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Mastercard Incorporated (0R2Z.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,638.22 - $3,108.27$2,912.91
Multi-Stage$977.18 - $1,071.87$1,023.65
Blended Fair Value$1,968.28
Current Price$568.81
Upside246.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.72%16.87%2.682.372.091.911.761.481.151.030.920.80
YoY Growth--13.44%13.40%9.30%8.47%19.33%28.83%10.83%12.54%15.13%41.17%
Dividend Yield--0.49%0.49%0.57%0.53%0.49%0.61%0.48%0.59%0.82%0.84%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)14,250.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,678.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)11,572.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,850.001,781.251,068.75
Cash Retained (M)11,572.0011,572.0011,572.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,850.00-1,781.25-1,068.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)8,722.009,790.7510,503.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)911.75911.75911.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share9.5710.7411.52
LTM Dividend per Share2.942.942.94
(+) Excess Retained per Share9.5710.7411.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend12.5013.6814.46
WACC / Discount Rate4.67%4.67%4.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2,638.22$2,912.91$3,108.27
Upside / Downside363.81%412.11%446.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)14,250.0015,176.2516,162.7117,213.2818,332.1519,523.7320,109.45
Payout Ratio18.79%33.03%47.28%61.52%75.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,678.005,013.387,641.0510,589.1313,888.1817,571.3618,601.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.67%4.67%4.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4,744.744,789.724,834.69
Year 2 PV (M)6,844.116,974.477,106.06
Year 3 PV (M)8,976.489,234.169,496.73
Year 4 PV (M)11,142.2511,570.7512,011.49
Year 5 PV (M)13,341.8213,986.2414,655.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)845,897.26886,754.41929,175.27
Equity Value (M)890,946.66933,309.75977,279.55
Shares Outstanding (M)911.75911.75911.75
Fair Value$977.18$1,023.65$1,071.87
Upside / Downside71.79%79.96%88.44%

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