Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Nutrien Ltd. (0NHS.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$41.64 - $68.19$53.48
Multi-Stage$61.87 - $67.78$64.77
Blended Fair Value$59.13
Current Price$58.24
Upside1.52%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.73%-0.73%2.172.112.112.142.112.091.950.671.652.46
YoY Growth--2.71%0.10%-1.34%1.46%0.78%7.35%188.48%-59.21%-32.81%5.52%
Dividend Yield--4.36%3.85%2.86%2.06%3.91%6.16%3.65%1.47%3.02%4.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,803.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,059.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)743.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)360.77225.48135.29
Cash Retained (M)743.97743.97743.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-360.77-225.48-135.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)383.20518.49608.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)488.96488.96488.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.781.061.24
LTM Dividend per Share2.172.172.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.781.061.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.953.233.41
WACC / Discount Rate7.96%7.96%7.96%
Growth Rate0.82%1.82%2.82%
Fair Value$41.64$53.48$68.19
Upside / Downside-28.50%-8.17%17.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,803.861,836.611,869.951,903.911,938.471,973.672,032.88
Payout Ratio58.76%65.01%71.25%77.50%83.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,059.881,193.891,332.411,475.581,623.501,776.301,880.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.96%7.96%7.96%
Growth Rate0.82%1.82%2.82%
Year 1 PV (M)1,094.991,105.851,116.71
Year 2 PV (M)1,120.811,143.151,165.72
Year 3 PV (M)1,138.411,172.631,207.52
Year 4 PV (M)1,148.781,195.041,242.69
Year 5 PV (M)1,152.781,211.101,271.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,598.4725,842.8927,137.17
Equity Value (M)30,254.2531,670.6633,141.56
Shares Outstanding (M)488.96488.96488.96
Fair Value$61.87$64.77$67.78
Upside / Downside6.24%11.21%16.38%

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