Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Northrop Grumman Corporation (0K92.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Capital GoodsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,209.44 - $5,445.86$5,102.96
Multi-Stage$1,233.86 - $1,353.94$1,292.77
Blended Fair Value$3,197.87
Current Price$609.32
Upside424.83%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.15%7.74%8.187.707.266.786.586.075.664.754.424.16
YoY Growth--6.27%6.08%7.02%3.15%8.30%7.19%19.16%7.66%6.14%7.10%
Dividend Yield--1.60%1.63%1.57%1.52%2.03%2.01%2.07%1.36%1.86%2.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,019.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,263.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,756.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)803.80502.38301.43
Cash Retained (M)2,756.002,756.002,756.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-803.80-502.38-301.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,952.202,253.632,454.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)144.93144.93144.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share13.4715.5516.94
LTM Dividend per Share8.718.718.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share13.4715.5516.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend22.1924.2725.65
WACC / Discount Rate5.20%5.20%5.20%
Growth Rate4.15%5.15%6.15%
Fair Value$2,209.44$5,102.96$5,445.86
Upside / Downside262.61%737.48%793.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,019.004,225.984,443.624,672.484,913.115,166.145,321.13
Payout Ratio31.43%43.14%54.86%66.57%78.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,263.001,823.112,437.573,110.483,846.244,649.534,922.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.20%5.20%5.20%
Growth Rate4.15%5.15%6.15%
Year 1 PV (M)1,716.581,733.071,749.55
Year 2 PV (M)2,161.022,202.722,244.82
Year 3 PV (M)2,596.462,671.972,748.93
Year 4 PV (M)3,023.023,140.813,262.00
Year 5 PV (M)3,440.853,609.243,784.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)165,879.49173,997.37182,430.00
Equity Value (M)178,817.42187,355.17196,219.45
Shares Outstanding (M)144.93144.93144.93
Fair Value$1,233.86$1,292.77$1,353.94
Upside / Downside102.50%112.17%122.20%

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