Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Coterra Energy Inc. (0HRZ.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas EnergySector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$106.51 - $433.72$279.12
Multi-Stage$52.57 - $57.49$54.99
Blended Fair Value$167.05
Current Price$23.65
Upside606.36%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.75%34.08%0.831.182.641.030.210.190.150.100.050.04
YoY Growth---29.78%-55.32%155.38%390.57%8.90%31.10%41.26%117.86%9.36%-0.56%
Dividend Yield--2.87%4.21%10.76%3.83%1.12%1.13%0.57%0.44%0.20%0.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,646.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)669.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)977.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)329.20205.75123.45
Cash Retained (M)977.00977.00977.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-329.20-205.75-123.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)647.80771.25853.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)754.75754.75754.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.861.021.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.890.890.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.861.021.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.741.912.02
WACC / Discount Rate7.23%7.23%7.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$106.51$279.12$433.72
Upside / Downside350.37%1,080.20%1,733.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,646.001,752.991,866.931,988.292,117.522,255.162,322.82
Payout Ratio40.64%50.52%60.39%70.26%80.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)669.00885.531,127.371,396.921,696.752,029.652,148.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.23%7.23%7.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)818.08825.83833.59
Year 2 PV (M)962.18980.51999.01
Year 3 PV (M)1,101.421,133.041,165.26
Year 4 PV (M)1,235.931,283.461,332.35
Year 5 PV (M)1,365.811,431.781,500.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)34,196.4935,848.2037,563.12
Equity Value (M)39,679.9241,502.8243,393.59
Shares Outstanding (M)754.75754.75754.75
Fair Value$52.57$54.99$57.49
Upside / Downside122.30%132.51%143.10%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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