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Definitive Analysis

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VSTECS Holdings Limited (0856.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Technology DistributorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$134.70 - $295.66$277.08
Multi-Stage$44.77 - $48.99$46.84
Blended Fair Value$161.96
Current Price$7.77
Upside1,984.41%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.82%11.94%0.260.180.280.230.170.160.150.130.130.13
YoY Growth--49.71%-37.22%22.73%32.06%9.73%2.66%19.28%0.03%0.19%50.60%
Dividend Yield--5.07%4.00%6.23%3.13%2.72%3.94%4.05%2.78%4.73%6.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,082.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)983.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,098.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)416.48260.30156.18
Cash Retained (M)1,098.751,098.751,098.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-416.48-260.30-156.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)682.27838.45942.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,400.721,400.721,400.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.490.600.67
LTM Dividend per Share0.700.700.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.490.600.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.191.301.38
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$134.70$277.08$295.66
Upside / Downside1,633.65%3,465.99%3,705.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,082.402,217.762,361.912,515.442,678.942,853.072,938.66
Payout Ratio47.24%55.79%64.34%72.89%81.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)983.661,237.271,519.701,833.622,181.932,567.772,718.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,151.591,162.511,173.42
Year 2 PV (M)1,316.511,341.581,366.90
Year 3 PV (M)1,478.451,520.891,564.14
Year 4 PV (M)1,637.461,700.431,765.20
Year 5 PV (M)1,793.571,880.201,970.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)55,331.7158,004.2560,779.08
Equity Value (M)62,709.3065,609.8768,618.89
Shares Outstanding (M)1,400.721,400.721,400.72
Fair Value$44.77$46.84$48.99
Upside / Downside476.18%502.83%530.48%

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