Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

SIIC Environment Holdings Ltd. (0807.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.27 - $47.35$43.22
Multi-Stage$15.29 - $16.81$16.03
Blended Fair Value$29.63
Current Price$0.90
Upside3,180.57%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.96%6.68%0.030.080.070.070.050.050.050.040.660.00
YoY Growth---59.33%5.51%3.27%40.95%0.16%0.77%17.82%-93.46%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--3.54%9.16%7.55%7.26%4.83%4.74%2.92%1.92%23.80%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)627.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)157.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)470.47
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)125.5978.4947.10
Cash Retained (M)470.47470.47470.47
(-) Cash Required (M)-125.59-78.49-47.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)344.88391.98423.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,575.672,575.672,575.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.210.23
WACC / Discount Rate4.48%4.48%4.48%
Growth Rate2.97%3.97%4.97%
Fair Value$13.27$43.22$47.35
Upside / Downside1,369.67%4,685.69%5,142.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)627.95652.89678.82705.78733.81762.95785.84
Payout Ratio25.08%38.06%51.05%64.03%77.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)157.48248.51346.52451.92565.15686.65726.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.48%4.48%4.48%
Growth Rate2.97%3.97%4.97%
Year 1 PV (M)235.55237.84240.13
Year 2 PV (M)311.33317.41323.54
Year 3 PV (M)384.87396.19407.73
Year 4 PV (M)456.21474.19492.70
Year 5 PV (M)525.40551.41578.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)37,465.6539,320.5541,248.21
Equity Value (M)39,379.0141,297.5943,290.76
Shares Outstanding (M)2,575.672,575.672,575.67
Fair Value$15.29$16.03$16.81
Upside / Downside1,592.97%1,675.45%1,761.14%

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