Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

China Resources Beer (Holdings) Company Limited (0291.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$56.04 - $129.19$81.90
Multi-Stage$41.05 - $44.78$42.88
Blended Fair Value$62.39
Current Price$22.81
Upside173.52%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS47.18%28.40%1.040.590.540.390.170.150.180.170.003.62
YoY Growth--75.98%9.89%35.75%128.34%15.20%-17.57%5.21%0.00%-100.00%4,152.90%
Dividend Yield--4.37%2.07%1.11%0.76%0.29%0.39%0.76%0.74%0.00%23.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,812.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,838.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,973.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,762.511,101.57660.94
Cash Retained (M)4,973.684,973.684,973.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,762.51-1,101.57-660.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,211.173,872.114,312.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,244.183,244.183,244.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.991.191.33
LTM Dividend per Share1.181.181.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.991.191.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.172.382.51
WACC / Discount Rate9.59%9.59%9.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$56.04$81.90$129.19
Upside / Downside145.70%259.05%466.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,812.579,385.399,995.4410,645.1411,337.0812,073.9912,436.21
Payout Ratio43.56%52.85%62.14%71.42%80.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,838.894,960.116,210.867,603.259,150.4210,866.5911,503.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.59%9.59%9.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4,483.534,526.024,568.52
Year 2 PV (M)5,074.695,171.345,268.91
Year 3 PV (M)5,615.465,776.665,940.92
Year 4 PV (M)6,108.806,343.736,585.37
Year 5 PV (M)6,557.486,874.217,203.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)105,325.85110,413.13115,695.11
Equity Value (M)133,165.80139,105.09145,261.89
Shares Outstanding (M)3,244.183,244.183,244.18
Fair Value$41.05$42.88$44.78
Upside / Downside79.95%87.98%96.30%

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