Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xingfa Aluminium Holdings Limited (0098.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$358.35 - $775.59$726.84
Multi-Stage$116.58 - $127.64$122.01
Blended Fair Value$424.42
Current Price$7.40
Upside5,635.45%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS27.30%30.93%0.580.340.680.290.250.170.170.000.080.07
YoY Growth--74.15%-50.58%130.86%15.65%45.52%4.23%0.00%-100.00%5.78%81.69%
Dividend Yield--8.89%6.01%8.83%4.91%4.14%2.38%3.93%0.00%2.48%3.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,640.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)491.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,149.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)328.10205.06123.04
Cash Retained (M)1,149.341,149.341,149.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-328.10-205.06-123.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)821.25944.281,026.31
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)420.65420.65420.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.952.242.44
LTM Dividend per Share1.171.171.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.952.242.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.123.413.61
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$358.35$726.84$775.59
Upside / Downside4,742.53%9,722.18%10,380.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,640.481,747.121,860.681,981.622,110.432,247.612,315.03
Payout Ratio29.94%41.95%53.96%65.98%77.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)491.14732.931,004.081,307.381,645.872,022.842,141.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)682.26688.73695.19
Year 2 PV (M)870.04886.61903.34
Year 3 PV (M)1,054.531,084.811,115.65
Year 4 PV (M)1,235.771,283.301,332.18
Year 5 PV (M)1,413.811,482.101,553.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)43,781.2845,895.9448,091.52
Equity Value (M)49,037.7051,321.4853,690.89
Shares Outstanding (M)420.65420.65420.65
Fair Value$116.58$122.01$127.64
Upside / Downside1,475.36%1,548.72%1,624.84%

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