Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hang Lung Group Limited (0010.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.61 - $57.13$43.06
Multi-Stage$101.36 - $111.76$106.46
Blended Fair Value$74.76
Current Price$13.66
Upside447.28%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.46%0.77%0.860.860.860.841.080.800.800.800.800.81
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%2.36%-22.18%34.99%0.00%0.00%0.37%-1.18%1.29%
Dividend Yield--8.22%8.08%6.00%5.04%5.60%4.15%4.01%2.78%2.95%3.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,439.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,457.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,982.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)687.80429.88257.93
Cash Retained (M)1,982.001,982.001,982.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-687.80-429.88-257.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,294.201,552.131,724.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,361.621,361.621,361.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.951.141.27
LTM Dividend per Share1.071.071.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.951.141.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.022.212.34
WACC / Discount Rate4.90%4.90%4.90%
Growth Rate-1.23%-0.23%0.77%
Fair Value$32.61$43.06$57.13
Upside / Downside138.70%215.23%318.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,439.003,431.263,423.543,415.843,408.153,400.483,502.50
Payout Ratio42.37%51.89%61.42%70.95%80.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,457.001,780.602,102.752,423.432,742.663,060.433,239.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.90%4.90%4.90%
Growth Rate-1.23%-0.23%0.77%
Year 1 PV (M)1,680.491,697.501,714.51
Year 2 PV (M)1,872.931,911.051,949.54
Year 3 PV (M)2,037.192,099.702,163.46
Year 4 PV (M)2,175.912,265.372,357.57
Year 5 PV (M)2,291.502,409.872,533.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)127,961.64134,571.56141,451.85
Equity Value (M)138,019.66144,955.05152,170.02
Shares Outstanding (M)1,361.621,361.621,361.62
Fair Value$101.36$106.46$111.76
Upside / Downside642.05%679.34%718.13%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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