Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangzhou Yuexiu Financial Holdings Group Co., Ltd. (000987.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - ConglomeratesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$120.50 - $141.97$133.04
Multi-Stage$37.12 - $40.67$38.86
Blended Fair Value$85.95
Current Price$7.83
Upside997.73%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.74%36.13%0.780.780.630.620.470.510.190.200.120.04
YoY Growth--0.00%22.98%1.93%33.83%-9.39%169.57%-4.79%65.83%237.67%0.00%
Dividend Yield--12.26%13.75%9.63%10.54%6.04%10.33%3.14%3.58%1.67%0.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,585.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,278.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,307.18
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)717.08448.17268.90
Cash Retained (M)1,307.181,307.181,307.18
(-) Cash Required (M)-717.08-448.17-268.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)590.11859.011,038.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,022.635,022.635,022.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.170.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.450.450.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.170.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.570.620.66
WACC / Discount Rate5.03%5.03%5.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$120.50$133.04$141.97
Upside / Downside1,438.92%1,599.15%1,713.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,585.393,818.444,066.644,330.974,612.494,912.305,059.67
Payout Ratio63.54%68.83%74.12%79.42%84.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,278.212,628.353,014.393,439.513,907.164,421.074,680.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.03%5.03%5.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,478.962,502.462,525.96
Year 2 PV (M)2,681.472,732.542,784.10
Year 3 PV (M)2,885.732,968.573,052.98
Year 4 PV (M)3,091.763,210.663,332.96
Year 5 PV (M)3,299.583,458.953,624.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)172,001.48180,309.22188,934.91
Equity Value (M)186,438.98195,182.40204,255.33
Shares Outstanding (M)5,022.635,022.635,022.63
Fair Value$37.12$38.86$40.67
Upside / Downside374.07%396.30%419.37%

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