Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Sinosteel Engineering & Technology Co., Ltd. (000928.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$88.29 - $104.02$97.48
Multi-Stage$66.37 - $72.83$69.54
Blended Fair Value$83.51
Current Price$6.21
Upside1,244.79%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.58%10.50%0.290.260.290.290.190.190.120.050.040.03
YoY Growth--11.96%-10.73%-2.22%50.57%2.55%56.23%159.14%14.24%36.57%-71.51%
Dividend Yield--4.43%4.07%3.82%4.35%2.89%4.59%1.84%0.86%0.32%0.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)750.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)450.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)299.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)150.1393.8356.30
Cash Retained (M)299.98299.98299.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-150.13-93.83-56.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)149.85206.15243.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,435.171,435.171,435.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.140.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.140.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.420.460.48
WACC / Discount Rate0.36%0.36%0.36%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$88.29$97.48$104.02
Upside / Downside1,321.75%1,469.78%1,575.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)750.66799.46851.42906.76965.701,028.471,059.33
Payout Ratio60.04%66.03%72.02%78.01%84.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)450.68527.88613.21707.41811.26925.63979.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate0.36%0.36%0.36%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)521.06526.00530.94
Year 2 PV (M)597.48608.86620.35
Year 3 PV (M)680.36699.89719.79
Year 4 PV (M)770.16799.78830.25
Year 5 PV (M)867.39909.28952.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)91,822.5196,257.57100,862.37
Equity Value (M)95,258.9699,801.39104,516.48
Shares Outstanding (M)1,435.171,435.171,435.17
Fair Value$66.37$69.54$72.83
Upside / Downside968.84%1,019.80%1,072.71%

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