Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Tianshan Material Co., Ltd. (000877.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$45.29 - $53.36$50.01
Multi-Stage$11.52 - $12.60$12.05
Blended Fair Value$31.03
Current Price$6.02
Upside415.43%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS47.58%19.25%0.560.762.091.780.770.080.050.060.060.09
YoY Growth---26.92%-63.65%17.67%130.06%873.18%67.17%-16.69%-11.83%-25.60%-9.06%
Dividend Yield--10.02%10.91%23.62%13.49%4.51%0.70%0.38%0.54%0.43%1.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,968.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,845.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)123.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)393.79246.12147.67
Cash Retained (M)123.26123.26123.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-393.79-246.12-147.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)-270.53-122.86-24.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,338.227,338.227,338.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.020.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.020.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.25
WACC / Discount Rate5.49%5.49%5.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$45.29$50.01$53.36
Upside / Downside652.35%730.69%786.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,968.962,096.942,233.242,378.402,533.002,697.642,778.57
Payout Ratio93.74%92.99%92.24%91.50%90.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,845.701,949.982,060.032,176.142,298.642,427.882,570.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.49%5.49%5.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,831.211,848.571,865.93
Year 2 PV (M)1,816.731,851.331,886.26
Year 3 PV (M)1,802.241,853.971,906.69
Year 4 PV (M)1,787.741,856.491,927.21
Year 5 PV (M)1,773.241,858.891,947.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)75,511.4479,158.6782,945.48
Equity Value (M)84,522.5988,427.9292,479.38
Shares Outstanding (M)7,338.227,338.227,338.22
Fair Value$11.52$12.05$12.60
Upside / Downside91.33%100.17%109.34%

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