Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.,Ltd. (000630.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CopperSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.30 - $28.23$10.50
Multi-Stage$3.16 - $3.45$3.30
Blended Fair Value$6.90
Current Price$5.36
Upside28.71%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.45%5.09%0.130.110.150.090.070.090.090.050.060.10
YoY Growth--16.47%-23.30%68.61%32.71%-24.95%3.71%61.75%-16.75%-36.04%22.65%
Dividend Yield--3.87%2.87%4.62%2.37%2.49%4.45%3.12%2.01%2.00%3.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,849.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,703.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)145.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)369.84231.15138.69
Cash Retained (M)145.25145.25145.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-369.84-231.15-138.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)-224.59-85.906.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)13,025.7713,025.7713,025.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.02-0.010.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.02-0.010.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.13
WACC / Discount Rate7.76%7.76%7.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$5.30$10.50$28.23
Upside / Downside-1.11%95.82%426.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,849.191,969.392,097.402,233.732,378.932,533.562,609.56
Payout Ratio92.15%91.72%91.29%90.86%90.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,703.951,806.261,914.662,029.532,151.242,280.202,413.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.76%7.76%7.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,660.441,676.181,691.92
Year 2 PV (M)1,618.001,648.821,679.93
Year 3 PV (M)1,576.621,621.881,667.99
Year 4 PV (M)1,536.251,595.331,656.10
Year 5 PV (M)1,496.891,569.191,644.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)33,287.3734,895.1636,564.49
Equity Value (M)41,175.5743,006.5644,904.69
Shares Outstanding (M)13,025.7713,025.7713,025.77
Fair Value$3.16$3.30$3.45
Upside / Downside-41.02%-38.40%-35.68%

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