Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Anhui Gujing Distillery Co., Ltd. (000596.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$376.78 - $1,780.35$829.84
Multi-Stage$206.50 - $225.51$215.84
Blended Fair Value$522.84
Current Price$160.58
Upside225.59%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.94%29.80%4.533.002.211.441.431.430.950.570.100.19
YoY Growth--50.73%35.76%53.85%0.54%0.09%50.00%66.67%500.00%-50.00%-42.86%
Dividend Yield--2.66%1.12%0.75%0.84%0.68%1.25%0.88%0.97%0.19%0.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,730.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,192.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,538.72
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)946.19591.37354.82
Cash Retained (M)1,538.721,538.721,538.72
(-) Cash Required (M)-946.19-591.37-354.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)592.53947.351,183.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)528.48528.48528.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.121.792.24
LTM Dividend per Share6.046.046.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.121.792.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.167.838.28
WACC / Discount Rate7.51%7.51%7.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$376.78$829.84$1,780.35
Upside / Downside134.64%416.77%1,008.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,730.965,038.475,365.975,714.766,086.226,481.836,676.28
Payout Ratio67.48%71.98%76.49%80.99%85.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,192.243,626.714,104.184,628.405,203.425,833.646,175.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.51%7.51%7.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,341.843,373.523,405.19
Year 2 PV (M)3,484.763,551.133,618.13
Year 3 PV (M)3,621.183,725.133,831.05
Year 4 PV (M)3,751.293,895.564,043.94
Year 5 PV (M)3,875.304,062.484,256.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)91,058.1795,456.31100,022.78
Equity Value (M)109,132.53114,064.12119,177.92
Shares Outstanding (M)528.48528.48528.48
Fair Value$206.50$215.84$225.51
Upside / Downside28.60%34.41%40.44%

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