Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Sector

Amphenol Corporation (APH)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$115.56 - $597.61$234.38
Multi-Stage$63.75 - $69.74$66.69
Blended Fair Value$150.54
Current Price$123.75
Upside21.65%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.32%19.30%0.470.390.380.270.230.220.200.160.140.13
YoY Growth--18.88%4.86%37.70%16.50%6.48%10.17%23.76%18.70%8.41%56.33%
Dividend Yield--0.71%0.69%0.92%0.72%0.71%1.21%0.82%0.75%0.76%0.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,821.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)799.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,021.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)764.20477.63286.58
Cash Retained (M)3,021.803,021.803,021.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-764.20-477.63-286.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,257.602,544.182,735.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,271.581,271.581,271.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.782.002.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.630.630.63
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.782.002.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.402.632.78
WACC / Discount Rate7.69%7.69%7.69%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$115.56$234.38$597.61
Upside / Downside-6.62%89.40%382.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,821.004,069.374,333.874,615.584,915.595,235.105,392.15
Payout Ratio20.92%34.73%48.55%62.37%76.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)799.201,413.402,104.082,878.573,744.854,711.594,987.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.69%7.69%7.69%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,300.091,312.421,324.74
Year 2 PV (M)1,780.241,814.151,848.38
Year 3 PV (M)2,240.282,304.592,370.12
Year 4 PV (M)2,680.822,783.922,889.96
Year 5 PV (M)3,102.483,252.333,407.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)69,957.5573,336.5376,844.83
Equity Value (M)81,061.4784,803.9488,685.95
Shares Outstanding (M)1,271.581,271.581,271.58
Fair Value$63.75$66.69$69.74
Upside / Downside-48.49%-46.11%-43.64%

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