Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Amphenol Corporation (APH)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$70.49 - $186.99$107.78
Multi-Stage$48.06 - $52.52$50.25
Blended Fair Value$79.02
Current Price$123.75
Upside-36.15%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.32%19.30%0.470.390.380.270.230.220.200.160.140.13
YoY Growth--18.88%4.86%37.70%16.50%6.48%10.17%23.76%18.70%8.41%56.33%
Dividend Yield--0.71%0.69%0.92%0.72%0.71%1.21%0.82%0.75%0.76%0.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,821.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)799.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,021.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)764.20477.63286.58
Cash Retained (M)3,021.803,021.803,021.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-764.20-477.63-286.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,257.602,544.182,735.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,271.581,271.581,271.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.782.002.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.630.630.63
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.782.002.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.402.632.78
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$70.49$107.78$186.99
Upside / Downside-43.04%-12.90%51.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,821.004,069.374,333.874,615.584,915.595,235.105,392.15
Payout Ratio20.92%34.73%48.55%62.37%76.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)799.201,413.402,104.082,878.573,744.854,711.594,987.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,283.371,295.541,307.70
Year 2 PV (M)1,734.741,767.781,801.13
Year 3 PV (M)2,154.942,216.802,279.83
Year 4 PV (M)2,545.532,643.432,744.12
Year 5 PV (M)2,908.023,048.483,194.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)50,483.2152,921.5655,453.24
Equity Value (M)61,109.8163,893.5966,780.34
Shares Outstanding (M)1,271.581,271.581,271.58
Fair Value$48.06$50.25$52.52
Upside / Downside-61.16%-59.40%-57.56%

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