DDM Analysis: 0012.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$34.17 - $60.59	$45.34
Multi-Stage	$114.37 - $125.98	$120.06
Blended Fair Value	$82.70
Current Price	$27.45
Upside	201.27%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	1.37%	18.83%	1.80	1.80	1.80	1.80	1.80	1.68	1.47	1.25	1.05	0.66
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	7.02%	14.34%	18.09%	19.05%	58.26%	106.12%
Dividend Yield	-	-	7.63%	7.64%	6.61%	5.42%	5.95%	4.40%	4.15%	2.89%	3.38%	2.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	12,508.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	11,136.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,372.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2,501.60	1,563.50	938.10
Cash Retained (M)	1,372.00	1,372.00	1,372.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2,501.60	-1,563.50	-938.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-1,129.60	-191.50	433.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	4,841.00	4,841.00	4,841.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.23	-0.04	0.09
LTM Dividend per Share	2.30	2.30	2.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.23	-0.04	0.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.07	2.26	2.39
WACC / Discount Rate	4.75%	4.75%	4.75%
Growth Rate	-1.22%	-0.22%	0.78%
Fair Value	$34.17	$45.34	$60.59
Upside / Downside	24.48%	65.17%	120.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	12,508.00	12,480.32	12,452.70	12,425.14	12,397.64	12,370.21	12,741.31
Payout Ratio	89.03%	89.22%	89.42%	89.61%	89.81%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	11,136.00	11,135.54	11,135.03	11,134.47	11,133.85	11,133.19	11,785.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	4.75%	4.75%	4.75%
Growth Rate	-1.22%	-0.22%	0.78%
Year 1 PV (M)	10,523.64	10,630.18	10,736.71
Year 2 PV (M)	9,944.90	10,147.28	10,351.69
Year 3 PV (M)	9,397.95	9,686.27	9,980.43
Year 4 PV (M)	8,881.04	9,246.17	9,622.45
Year 5 PV (M)	8,392.52	8,826.02	9,277.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)	506,501.91	532,664.52	559,897.23
Equity Value (M)	553,641.96	581,200.43	609,865.77
Shares Outstanding (M)	4,841.00	4,841.00	4,841.00
Fair Value	$114.37	$120.06	$125.98
Upside / Downside	316.63%	337.37%	358.94%

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Financial Statements

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Ticker

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Sector

Henderson Land Development Company Limited (0012.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener