Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Saudi Cement Company (3030.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.07 - $29.17$24.48
Multi-Stage$49.37 - $54.37$51.82
Blended Fair Value$38.15
Current Price$39.58
Upside-3.62%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.16%-10.84%2.243.333.423.503.503.253.255.005.755.50
YoY Growth---32.68%-2.78%-2.17%0.00%7.69%0.00%-35.00%-13.04%4.55%-22.11%
Dividend Yield--4.89%7.14%6.11%5.75%5.27%6.63%5.56%9.30%9.61%8.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)424.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)251.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)173.69
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)84.9453.0931.85
Cash Retained (M)173.69173.69173.69
(-) Cash Required (M)-84.94-53.09-31.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)88.75120.60141.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)153.00153.00153.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.580.790.93
LTM Dividend per Share1.641.641.64
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.580.790.93
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.222.432.57
WACC / Discount Rate6.77%6.77%6.77%
Growth Rate-3.87%-2.87%-1.87%
Fair Value$20.07$24.48$29.17
Upside / Downside-49.30%-38.16%-26.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)424.72412.52400.67389.16377.98367.12378.13
Payout Ratio59.10%65.28%71.46%77.64%83.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)251.03269.31286.33302.15316.82330.41349.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.77%6.77%6.77%
Growth Rate-3.87%-2.87%-1.87%
Year 1 PV (M)249.64252.24254.84
Year 2 PV (M)246.04251.19256.39
Year 3 PV (M)240.68248.27256.02
Year 4 PV (M)233.94243.83254.03
Year 5 PV (M)226.16238.17250.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,357.366,694.997,046.81
Equity Value (M)7,553.827,928.688,318.76
Shares Outstanding (M)153.00153.00153.00
Fair Value$49.37$51.82$54.37
Upside / Downside24.74%30.93%37.37%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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