Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Scentre Group (SCG.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - RetailSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.64 - $3.85$3.23
Multi-Stage$4.74 - $5.19$4.96
Blended Fair Value$4.09
Current Price$3.56
Upside15.00%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.49%-1.15%0.160.160.150.140.110.230.230.220.220.21
YoY Growth---0.79%11.88%5.35%22.81%-50.21%0.87%1.84%1.87%2.28%16.43%
Dividend Yield--4.75%5.47%5.09%4.41%4.08%5.95%5.79%5.30%4.69%5.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,857.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,691.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)166.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)371.50232.19139.31
Cash Retained (M)166.00166.00166.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-371.50-232.19-139.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)-205.50-66.1926.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,213.205,213.205,213.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.310.33
WACC / Discount Rate8.74%8.74%8.74%
Growth Rate-1.84%-0.84%0.16%
Fair Value$2.64$3.23$3.85
Upside / Downside-25.73%-9.37%8.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,857.501,841.851,826.341,810.961,795.711,780.581,834.00
Payout Ratio91.06%90.85%90.64%90.43%90.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,691.501,673.341,655.361,637.571,619.951,602.521,696.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.74%8.74%8.74%
Growth Rate-1.84%-0.84%0.16%
Year 1 PV (M)1,523.331,538.841,554.36
Year 2 PV (M)1,371.861,399.961,428.34
Year 3 PV (M)1,235.451,273.601,312.52
Year 4 PV (M)1,112.601,158.641,206.09
Year 5 PV (M)1,001.961,054.051,108.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,479.4719,440.1620,440.39
Equity Value (M)24,724.6725,865.2527,049.99
Shares Outstanding (M)5,213.205,213.205,213.20
Fair Value$4.74$4.96$5.19
Upside / Downside33.22%39.37%45.75%

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