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Scentre Group (SCG.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - RetailSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.24 - $4.98$4.05
Multi-Stage$7.13 - $7.83$7.48
Blended Fair Value$5.76
Current Price$3.56
Upside61.89%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.49%-1.15%0.160.160.150.140.110.230.230.220.220.21
YoY Growth---0.79%11.88%5.35%22.81%-50.21%0.87%1.84%1.87%2.28%16.43%
Dividend Yield--4.75%5.47%5.09%4.41%4.08%5.95%5.79%5.30%4.69%5.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,857.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,691.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)166.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)371.50232.19139.31
Cash Retained (M)166.00166.00166.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-371.50-232.19-139.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)-205.50-66.1926.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,213.205,213.205,213.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.310.33
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate-1.84%-0.84%0.16%
Fair Value$3.24$4.05$4.98
Upside / Downside-8.97%13.76%39.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,857.501,841.851,826.341,810.961,795.711,780.581,834.00
Payout Ratio91.06%90.85%90.64%90.43%90.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,691.501,673.341,655.361,637.571,619.951,602.521,696.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate-1.84%-0.84%0.16%
Year 1 PV (M)1,551.121,566.921,582.73
Year 2 PV (M)1,422.381,451.511,480.94
Year 3 PV (M)1,304.321,344.601,385.69
Year 4 PV (M)1,196.061,245.551,296.56
Year 5 PV (M)1,096.771,153.791,213.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,624.6732,216.7533,874.37
Equity Value (M)37,195.3238,979.1240,833.43
Shares Outstanding (M)5,213.205,213.205,213.20
Fair Value$7.13$7.48$7.83
Upside / Downside100.42%110.03%120.02%

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