DDM Analysis: 603218.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$12.39 - $31.83	$18.76
Multi-Stage	$8.85 - $9.65	$9.24
Blended Fair Value	$14.00
Current Price	$14.69
Upside	-4.68%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	18.52%	21.63%	0.28	0.20	0.24	0.30	0.16	0.12	0.08	0.06	0.02	0.04
YoY Growth	-	-	38.53%	-14.76%	-21.88%	94.27%	30.46%	52.33%	33.33%	280.76%	-60.69%	-0.31%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.20%	1.69%	1.07%	1.47%	0.46%	0.97%	0.51%	0.54%	0.06%	0.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	551.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	289.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)	262.48

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	110.32	68.95	41.37
Cash Retained (M)	262.48	262.48	262.48
(-) Cash Required (M)	-110.32	-68.95	-41.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)	152.15	193.52	221.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,016.56	1,016.56	1,016.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.15	0.19	0.22
LTM Dividend per Share	0.28	0.28	0.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.15	0.19	0.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.43	0.47	0.50
WACC / Discount Rate	9.20%	9.20%	9.20%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$12.39	$18.76	$31.83
Upside / Downside	-15.63%	27.72%	116.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	551.61	587.47	625.65	666.32	709.63	755.76	778.43
Payout Ratio	52.42%	59.93%	67.45%	74.97%	82.48%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	289.14	352.09	422.00	499.52	585.33	680.18	720.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.20%	9.20%	9.20%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	319.41	322.44	325.47
Year 2 PV (M)	347.31	353.92	360.60
Year 3 PV (M)	372.95	383.66	394.56
Year 4 PV (M)	396.46	411.70	427.39
Year 5 PV (M)	417.95	438.14	459.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)	7,141.76	7,486.71	7,844.86
Equity Value (M)	8,995.84	9,396.57	9,811.98
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,016.56	1,016.56	1,016.56
Fair Value	$8.85	$9.24	$9.65
Upside / Downside	-39.76%	-37.08%	-34.29%

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Riyue Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. (603218.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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