Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Riyue Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. (603218.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.39 - $31.83$18.76
Multi-Stage$8.85 - $9.65$9.24
Blended Fair Value$14.00
Current Price$14.69
Upside-4.68%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.52%21.63%0.280.200.240.300.160.120.080.060.020.04
YoY Growth--38.53%-14.76%-21.88%94.27%30.46%52.33%33.33%280.76%-60.69%-0.31%
Dividend Yield--2.20%1.69%1.07%1.47%0.46%0.97%0.51%0.54%0.06%0.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)551.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)289.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)262.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)110.3268.9541.37
Cash Retained (M)262.48262.48262.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-110.32-68.95-41.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)152.15193.52221.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,016.561,016.561,016.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.190.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.190.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.430.470.50
WACC / Discount Rate9.20%9.20%9.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$12.39$18.76$31.83
Upside / Downside-15.63%27.72%116.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)551.61587.47625.65666.32709.63755.76778.43
Payout Ratio52.42%59.93%67.45%74.97%82.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)289.14352.09422.00499.52585.33680.18720.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.20%9.20%9.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)319.41322.44325.47
Year 2 PV (M)347.31353.92360.60
Year 3 PV (M)372.95383.66394.56
Year 4 PV (M)396.46411.70427.39
Year 5 PV (M)417.95438.14459.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,141.767,486.717,844.86
Equity Value (M)8,995.849,396.579,811.98
Shares Outstanding (M)1,016.561,016.561,016.56
Fair Value$8.85$9.24$9.65
Upside / Downside-39.76%-37.08%-34.29%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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