Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kimberly-Clark Corporation (KMB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$69.26 - $115.75$89.71
Multi-Stage$137.38 - $150.78$143.95
Blended Fair Value$116.83
Current Price$124.34
Upside-6.04%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.95%2.63%4.884.764.674.544.354.224.154.073.933.81
YoY Growth--2.52%1.93%2.77%4.48%3.05%1.59%1.99%3.66%3.07%1.27%
Dividend Yield--3.43%3.70%3.48%3.69%3.13%3.30%3.38%3.70%2.99%2.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,969.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,650.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)319.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)393.80246.13147.68
Cash Retained (M)319.00319.00319.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-393.80-246.13-147.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)-74.8072.88171.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)333.58333.58333.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.220.220.51
LTM Dividend per Share4.954.954.95
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.220.220.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.725.165.46
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate-0.31%0.69%1.69%
Fair Value$69.26$89.71$115.75
Upside / Downside-44.30%-27.85%-6.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,969.001,982.491,996.082,009.762,023.532,037.402,098.52
Payout Ratio83.80%85.04%86.28%87.52%88.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,650.001,685.901,722.201,758.931,796.081,833.661,941.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate-0.31%0.69%1.69%
Year 1 PV (M)1,567.541,583.271,598.99
Year 2 PV (M)1,488.891,518.911,549.23
Year 3 PV (M)1,413.891,456.871,500.71
Year 4 PV (M)1,342.401,397.081,453.42
Year 5 PV (M)1,274.271,339.481,407.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)38,740.8140,723.3442,786.22
Equity Value (M)45,827.8148,018.9650,295.91
Shares Outstanding (M)333.58333.58333.58
Fair Value$137.38$143.95$150.78
Upside / Downside10.49%15.77%21.26%

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