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Kimberly-Clark Corporation (KMB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$50.11 - $75.08$61.95
Multi-Stage$78.78 - $86.10$82.38
Blended Fair Value$72.16
Current Price$124.34
Upside-41.96%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.95%2.63%4.884.764.674.544.354.224.154.073.933.81
YoY Growth--2.52%1.93%2.77%4.48%3.05%1.59%1.99%3.66%3.07%1.27%
Dividend Yield--3.43%3.70%3.48%3.69%3.13%3.30%3.38%3.70%2.99%2.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,969.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,650.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)319.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)393.80246.13147.68
Cash Retained (M)319.00319.00319.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-393.80-246.13-147.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)-74.8072.88171.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)333.58333.58333.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.220.220.51
LTM Dividend per Share4.954.954.95
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.220.220.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.725.165.46
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-0.31%0.69%1.69%
Fair Value$50.11$61.95$75.08
Upside / Downside-59.70%-50.18%-39.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,969.001,982.491,996.082,009.762,023.532,037.402,098.52
Payout Ratio83.80%85.04%86.28%87.52%88.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,650.001,685.901,722.201,758.931,796.081,833.661,941.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-0.31%0.69%1.69%
Year 1 PV (M)1,530.211,545.561,560.91
Year 2 PV (M)1,418.811,447.421,476.31
Year 3 PV (M)1,315.251,355.231,396.02
Year 4 PV (M)1,219.011,268.661,319.82
Year 5 PV (M)1,129.581,187.391,247.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,667.6020,674.0821,721.34
Equity Value (M)26,280.4727,478.3428,721.94
Shares Outstanding (M)333.58333.58333.58
Fair Value$78.78$82.38$86.10
Upside / Downside-36.64%-33.75%-30.75%

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