Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. (000422.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.88 - $8.98$7.33
Multi-Stage$15.41 - $16.96$16.17
Blended Fair Value$11.75
Current Price$14.72
Upside-20.18%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.93%-8.93%0.500.370.320.520.690.800.860.910.911.07
YoY Growth--35.19%14.08%-37.50%-24.57%-13.85%-6.72%-5.72%-0.69%-14.34%-16.27%
Dividend Yield--3.67%4.01%2.27%2.55%17.75%30.33%18.51%29.25%13.59%16.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)705.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)510.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)195.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)141.1588.2252.93
Cash Retained (M)195.34195.34195.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-141.15-88.22-52.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)54.20107.13142.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,065.611,065.611,065.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.100.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.480.480.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.100.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.530.580.61
WACC / Discount Rate6.08%6.08%6.08%
Growth Rate-2.69%-1.69%-0.69%
Fair Value$5.88$7.33$8.98
Upside / Downside-60.08%-50.22%-38.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)705.73693.79682.06670.52659.18648.04667.48
Payout Ratio72.32%75.86%79.39%82.93%86.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)510.38526.28541.50556.05569.96583.23617.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.08%6.08%6.08%
Growth Rate-2.69%-1.69%-0.69%
Year 1 PV (M)491.06496.10501.15
Year 2 PV (M)471.44481.18491.02
Year 3 PV (M)451.70465.77480.13
Year 4 PV (M)432.01450.04468.64
Year 5 PV (M)412.48434.12456.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,162.8514,905.6915,679.38
Equity Value (M)16,421.5517,232.9118,076.97
Shares Outstanding (M)1,065.611,065.611,065.61
Fair Value$15.41$16.17$16.96
Upside / Downside4.69%9.86%15.24%

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