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Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. (000422.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.80 - $8.83$7.22
Multi-Stage$14.85 - $16.35$15.58
Blended Fair Value$11.40
Current Price$14.72
Upside-22.54%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.93%-8.93%0.500.370.320.520.690.800.860.910.911.07
YoY Growth--35.19%14.08%-37.50%-24.57%-13.85%-6.72%-5.72%-0.69%-14.34%-16.27%
Dividend Yield--3.67%4.01%2.27%2.55%17.75%30.33%18.51%29.25%13.59%16.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)705.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)510.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)195.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)141.1588.2252.93
Cash Retained (M)195.34195.34195.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-141.15-88.22-52.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)54.20107.13142.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,065.611,065.611,065.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.100.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.480.480.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.100.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.530.580.61
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-2.69%-1.69%-0.69%
Fair Value$5.80$7.22$8.83
Upside / Downside-60.60%-50.95%-40.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)705.73693.79682.06670.52659.18648.04667.48
Payout Ratio72.32%75.86%79.39%82.93%86.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)510.38526.28541.50556.05569.96583.23617.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-2.69%-1.69%-0.69%
Year 1 PV (M)490.52495.56500.60
Year 2 PV (M)470.41480.13489.94
Year 3 PV (M)450.23464.25478.56
Year 4 PV (M)430.13448.08466.59
Year 5 PV (M)410.24431.75454.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,574.5414,286.5215,028.07
Equity Value (M)15,826.0516,606.2917,417.93
Shares Outstanding (M)1,065.611,065.611,065.61
Fair Value$14.85$15.58$16.35
Upside / Downside0.89%5.87%11.04%

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