DDM Analysis: MS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$209.65 - $485.15	$306.77
Multi-Stage	$152.70 - $166.60	$159.52
Blended Fair Value	$233.15
Current Price	$158.96
Upside	46.67%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	18.50%	21.11%	3.84	3.61	3.38	2.61	1.71	1.64	1.49	1.30	1.09	0.91
YoY Growth	-	-	6.51%	6.70%	29.49%	52.28%	4.26%	10.61%	13.91%	19.42%	20.00%	60.95%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.29%	3.85%	3.85%	2.99%	2.21%	4.83%	3.41%	2.42%	2.55%	3.64%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	16,178.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	6,490.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	9,688.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	3,235.60	2,022.25	1,213.35
Cash Retained (M)	9,688.00	9,688.00	9,688.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-3,235.60	-2,022.25	-1,213.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)	6,452.40	7,665.75	8,474.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,598.50	1,598.50	1,598.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share	4.04	4.80	5.30
LTM Dividend per Share	4.06	4.06	4.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share	4.04	4.80	5.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend	8.10	8.86	9.36
WACC / Discount Rate	9.57%	9.57%	9.57%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$209.65	$306.77	$485.15
Upside / Downside	31.89%	92.99%	205.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	16,178.00	17,229.57	18,349.49	19,542.21	20,812.45	22,165.26	22,830.22
Payout Ratio	40.12%	50.09%	60.07%	70.05%	80.02%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	6,490.00	8,630.80	11,022.49	13,688.63	16,654.80	19,948.74	21,117.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.57%	9.57%	9.57%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	7,802.70	7,876.66	7,950.62
Year 2 PV (M)	9,008.81	9,180.40	9,353.61
Year 3 PV (M)	10,114.43	10,404.78	10,700.64
Year 4 PV (M)	11,125.38	11,553.23	11,993.31
Year 5 PV (M)	12,047.16	12,629.04	13,233.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)	193,984.54	203,354.07	213,082.19
Equity Value (M)	244,083.03	254,998.19	266,313.56
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,598.50	1,598.50	1,598.50
Fair Value	$152.70	$159.52	$166.60
Upside / Downside	-3.94%	0.35%	4.81%

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071050.KS	Korea Investment Holdings Co., Ltd.	2.42%	$3,984.93	13.09%
0DQK.L	Beter Bed Holding N.V.	2.42%	$0.15	53.98%
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300453.SZ	Jiangxi Sanxin Medtec Co.,Ltd.	2.42%	$0.21	45.08%
600064.SS	Nanjing Gaoke Company Limited	2.42%	$0.21	15.60%
601236.SS	Hongta Securities Co., Ltd.	2.42%	$0.20	95.69%
9550.SR	Sure Global Tech Company	2.42%	$1.52	28.67%
9562.SR	Foods Gate Trading Co.	2.42%	$0.67	13.40%
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NMAN.ST	Nederman Holding AB (publ)	2.42%	$4.00	47.45%
SALIK.AE	Salik Company P.J.S.C.	2.42%	$0.16	83.74%
SKMO.ST	Skåne-möllan AB (publ)	2.42%	$1.40	96.86%
001130.KS	Daehan Flour Mills Co.,Ltd	2.41%	$3,470.92	10.83%
080160.KQ	Modetour Network Inc.	2.41%	$249.37	24.80%
0U96.L	Everest Re Group, Ltd.	2.41%	$8.07	61.23%
3591.T	Wacoal Holdings Corp.	2.41%	$106.27	49.77%
601966.SS	Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.,Ltd.	2.41%	$0.35	42.43%
7951.T	Yamaha Corporation	2.41%	$26.35	66.95%
BORG.ST	Björn Borg AB (publ)	2.41%	$1.50	43.49%
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Morgan Stanley (MS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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