Definitive Analysis | Institutional-Grade Financial Research
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Morgan Stanley (MS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$238.60 - $636.95$365.55
Multi-Stage$166.02 - $181.23$173.49
Blended Fair Value$269.52
Current Price$158.96
Upside69.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.50%21.11%3.843.613.382.611.711.641.491.301.090.91
YoY Growth--6.51%6.70%29.49%52.28%4.26%10.61%13.91%19.42%20.00%60.95%
Dividend Yield--3.29%3.85%3.85%2.99%2.21%4.83%3.41%2.42%2.55%3.64%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)16,178.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,490.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)9,688.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,235.602,022.251,213.35
Cash Retained (M)9,688.009,688.009,688.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,235.60-2,022.25-1,213.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,452.407,665.758,474.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,598.501,598.501,598.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.044.805.30
LTM Dividend per Share4.064.064.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.044.805.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.108.869.36
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$238.60$365.55$636.95
Upside / Downside50.10%129.97%300.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)16,178.0017,229.5718,349.4919,542.2120,812.4522,165.2622,830.22
Payout Ratio40.12%50.09%60.07%70.05%80.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,490.008,630.8011,022.4913,688.6316,654.8019,948.7421,117.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)7,838.077,912.367,986.65
Year 2 PV (M)9,090.659,263.819,438.59
Year 3 PV (M)10,252.5810,546.8910,846.79
Year 4 PV (M)11,328.4411,764.1012,212.21
Year 5 PV (M)12,322.6512,917.8413,535.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)214,554.12224,917.17235,676.83
Equity Value (M)265,386.51277,322.17289,696.88
Shares Outstanding (M)1,598.501,598.501,598.50
Fair Value$166.02$173.49$181.23
Upside / Downside4.44%9.14%14.01%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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