DDM Analysis: GGBR3.SA

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$75.82 - $294.55	$212.77
Multi-Stage	$36.55 - $39.97	$38.23
Blended Fair Value	$125.50
Current Price	$16.61
Upside	655.55%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	27.89%	13.79%	0.82	1.32	2.91	2.64	0.14	0.24	0.30	0.04	0.04	0.18
YoY Growth	-	-	-38.27%	-54.46%	10.34%	1,842.92%	-43.24%	-19.18%	593.51%	0.49%	-76.00%	-21.29%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.05%	7.13%	13.80%	10.78%	0.57%	2.99%	2.32%	0.34%	0.49%	3.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	3,001.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,355.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,646.15

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	600.24	375.15	225.09
Cash Retained (M)	1,646.15	1,646.15	1,646.15
(-) Cash Required (M)	-600.24	-375.15	-225.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,045.91	1,271.00	1,421.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,026.32	2,026.32	2,026.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.52	0.63	0.70
LTM Dividend per Share	0.67	0.67	0.67
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.52	0.63	0.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.18	1.30	1.37
WACC / Discount Rate	7.15%	7.15%	7.15%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$75.82	$212.77	$294.55
Upside / Downside	356.48%	1,180.95%	1,673.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	3,001.20	3,196.27	3,404.03	3,625.29	3,860.94	4,111.90	4,235.26
Payout Ratio	45.15%	54.12%	63.09%	72.06%	81.03%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,355.05	1,729.83	2,147.61	2,612.39	3,128.52	3,700.71	3,917.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.15%	7.15%	7.15%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,599.26	1,614.42	1,629.58
Year 2 PV (M)	1,835.64	1,870.60	1,905.90
Year 3 PV (M)	2,064.36	2,123.62	2,184.01
Year 4 PV (M)	2,285.61	2,373.51	2,463.92
Year 5 PV (M)	2,499.57	2,620.30	2,745.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)	63,780.75	66,861.38	70,059.92
Equity Value (M)	74,065.20	77,463.84	80,988.98
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,026.32	2,026.32	2,026.32
Fair Value	$36.55	$38.23	$39.97
Upside / Downside	120.06%	130.16%	140.63%

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Gerdau S.A. (GGBR3.SA)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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