Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Itaúsa S.A. (ITSA3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$31.52 - $78.02$47.16
Multi-Stage$34.34 - $37.56$35.92
Blended Fair Value$41.54
Current Price$11.47
Upside262.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-20.79%5.22%0.290.420.350.310.420.920.610.290.270.23
YoY Growth---31.13%18.44%15.47%-27.01%-54.63%51.58%108.28%10.00%13.95%34.73%
Dividend Yield--3.04%4.71%5.64%4.30%6.76%17.95%9.25%4.89%7.05%8.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)15,909.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12,835.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,074.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,181.801,988.631,193.18
Cash Retained (M)3,074.003,074.003,074.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,181.80-1,988.63-1,193.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)-107.801,085.381,880.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10,916.0310,916.0310,916.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.100.17
LTM Dividend per Share1.181.181.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.100.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.171.281.35
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate3.22%4.22%5.22%
Fair Value$31.52$47.16$78.02
Upside / Downside174.80%311.16%580.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)15,909.0016,579.7917,278.8718,007.4218,766.6919,557.9820,144.72
Payout Ratio80.68%82.54%84.41%86.27%88.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12,835.0013,685.3114,584.5015,535.1916,540.1217,602.1818,633.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate3.22%4.22%5.22%
Year 1 PV (M)12,663.2012,785.8812,908.57
Year 2 PV (M)12,487.3212,730.4512,975.93
Year 3 PV (M)12,307.8712,669.0813,037.29
Year 4 PV (M)12,125.3412,602.1213,092.81
Year 5 PV (M)11,940.1712,529.8913,142.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)313,297.10328,770.75344,849.83
Equity Value (M)374,821.01392,088.18410,007.12
Shares Outstanding (M)10,916.0310,916.0310,916.03
Fair Value$34.34$35.92$37.56
Upside / Downside199.36%213.15%227.46%

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