DDM Analysis: CNQ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$174.20 - $630.39	$551.30
Multi-Stage	$82.13 - $89.73	$85.86
Blended Fair Value	$318.58
Current Price	$44.49
Upside	616.07%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	20.50%	16.58%	2.11	1.85	2.35	0.82	0.93	0.83	0.74	0.60	0.36	0.60
YoY Growth	-	-	13.83%	-21.01%	187.13%	-12.02%	11.88%	11.59%	24.76%	65.17%	-39.41%	30.99%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.76%	3.56%	6.27%	2.11%	4.79%	8.71%	3.99%	3.01%	1.65%	3.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	6,655.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	4,755.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,900.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,331.00	831.88	499.13
Cash Retained (M)	1,900.00	1,900.00	1,900.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,331.00	-831.88	-499.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)	569.00	1,068.13	1,400.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,099.52	2,099.52	2,099.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.27	0.51	0.67
LTM Dividend per Share	2.26	2.26	2.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.27	0.51	0.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.54	2.77	2.93
WACC / Discount Rate	7.04%	7.04%	7.04%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$174.20	$551.30	$630.39
Upside / Downside	291.54%	1,139.15%	1,316.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	6,655.00	7,087.58	7,548.27	8,038.90	8,561.43	9,117.93	9,391.46
Payout Ratio	71.45%	75.16%	78.87%	82.58%	86.29%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	4,755.00	5,327.02	5,953.32	6,638.53	7,387.66	8,206.13	8,687.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.04%	7.04%	7.04%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	4,930.13	4,976.86	5,023.59
Year 2 PV (M)	5,099.26	5,196.38	5,294.43
Year 3 PV (M)	5,262.51	5,413.58	5,567.51
Year 4 PV (M)	5,420.04	5,628.48	5,842.87
Year 5 PV (M)	5,571.96	5,841.08	6,120.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)	146,155.46	153,214.82	160,544.36
Equity Value (M)	172,439.35	180,271.20	188,393.27
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,099.52	2,099.52	2,099.52
Fair Value	$82.13	$85.86	$89.73
Upside / Downside	84.61%	92.99%	101.69%

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Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener